Predictions

Well, it’s that time of the year again, when people who should know better put their reputations on the line and start making damn fool predictions for the coming year.

Before I do that though, how did I do last year? Not bad actually, with a couple of wrong ‘uns thrown in. I am human! Here’s the full text, with a summary below.

1. 3 fails to make 1,000,000 subscribers (again)

Hmmm. Well I was certainly wrong about this, they easily surpassed the magic million and are the fastest growing UK operator.

BUT, they’ve done this by abandoning their previous strategy of which I was so critical. So I was kind of right in that if they hadn’t slashed their prices across the board, they’d never have made the million.

Any damn fool can sell a $10 note for $5 though. So this is a short term measure at best.

But they are finally starting to launch some innovative services, which is the key to growing 3G, so there’s life in 3 yet.

2. MMS still not going to work

Well, full marks here, Mr Buckley, despite millions invested in marketing.

I’ve written about MMS’s problems before.

As I wrote last year:

the fact is that even if you: ∑ Ignore the technical complexity of setting up your phone ∑ Ignore the complexity of sending an MMS. ∑ Ignore the interoperability. ∑ Ignore pricing (35p Ò get outta here÷). You still have problem with what to put in your MMS – sometimes called content around these parts.

If itÌs going to go mass market, people will need help in composing these things and that means a range of cheap and readily available, easy-to-use content. And that content will need to sit on their phones and be able to be previewed so that they know what theyÌre sending their nearest and dearest.

This is all just as valid today as it was last year. As Frank Koehntopp wrote today:

I took my 3 year old to McDonalds today, and the Coke cup had a code for a “The Incredibles Mobile Special” – which is something like a ring tone, a background picture or a game for your phone.

I did just that, and in came a two part SMS which appeared as “service message”. Would you know what to do with it? Do you have any idea about the costs of clicking on that link? I bet you don’t, nor will the kids who try that. In my case, it didn’t even work (some strange server error), and I had to chose between different GPRS access points.

If this happened in other industries, the whole management team would be kicked out on its ear.

And I’ll repeat my mantra: Why can’t the industry make phones that work out of the box? It’s a scandal.

If you work for an operator, it is a genuine question. Why? Please leave a comment.

3. SMS continues to thrive

Round of applause.

4. Local Free Messaging starts to take off.

Well that’s true too. It’s also much bigger than you might think. Watch this space for more growth.

5. Java Takes Off (and not just for gaming).

Yep. And remember all those announcements of media giants creating their own java portals for non-gaming content – what happened to them actually??? Has any actually launched.

6. DRM Rises up the agenda

DRM continues to dominate the conversation and will continue to do so.

However, it’s pretty obvious these days that all DRM is doomed and content owners need to live with that and adjust their business models accordingly.

Every time a foolproof DRM system is launched someone cracks it within 24 hours and tells those that want to know all about it. Some of these fools can be darn clever

7. LBS starts to happen

Yep. Still grass roots, but beginning to move from tech provider “sell” to user “buy”, which is a great sign. Projects like Dodgeball and Yellow Arrow are pretty exciting.

8. TagText launches to great success

This is one my personal projects and sadly we were badly let down by our development partners. I hope 2005 will be our year!

So I’ll give myself 6.5 out of a possible 8 marks (half for the 3 one). Ironically the one that I got completely wrong was the one I was in a position to directly influence

The trouble with this kind of exercise though is that you can’t remember if these were bleedingly obvious when I made them. Well, actually I don’t think they were that obvious and certainly Local Free Messaging is still not on most commentator’s map and MMS was predicted to boom.

Anyway, next I need to think about the coming year. Make your prediction by leaving a comment below or drop me an email russell at mobhappy dot com. I’m off to rub my crystal ball.

—–>Follow us on Twitter too: @russellbuckley and @caaarlo

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